Two surveys show similar long-term outlooks for the business jet market, though one is less rosy about short-term conditions. JETNET iQ’s third-quarter survey and Honeywell’s 33rd Global Business Aviation Outlook were both released yesterday before the start of the annual National Business Aviation Association (NBAA) BACE conference in Las Vegas.
The Honeywell report forecasts new business jet deliveries in 2025 to be 12 percent higher than 2024, with 90 percent of those surveyed expecting to fly more or about the same in 2025 than this year. Large jets are also expected to account for about two-thirds of all expenditures of new business jets in the next five years.
But JETNET iQ founder Rollie Vincent reported a cloud of “uncertainty” among business aviation buyers and sellers these days, according to the most recent survey. “That was the No. 1 word reported by respondents,” he said during a press conference at BACE.
The long-term industry outlook remains strong, but short-term optimism has been on the decline since 2022.
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Optimism regarding current market conditions has been declining since late 2022. The JETNET survey for the third quarter of 2024 reported that global confidence in the market was down 26.4 percent for the third quarter compared to being up 16.8 percent for the same period a year ago.
When respondents were asked about the top industry challenges, the three most pressing included aerospace supply chain recovery, aircraft maintenance repair and overhaul capacity, and attracting and retaining talent to the industry.
In 2021 to 2022, the industry went through a dramatic rebalancing following the COVID pandemic, said Vincent, and it is still healing from disruptions to product and service supply chains.
According to one survey, 90 percent of private fliers expect to fly more in 2025 than last year.
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According to the JETNET survey, aircraft deliveries have been flat worldwide, but backlogs have also been valued at $50 billion yearly since 2022, signifying that “we are not in a demand-weakened world,” said Vincent.
While the U.S. has the most extensive business jet fleet in the world and a healthy, growing annual GDP forecast of 2.4 percent, other countries are experiencing faster growth, including India, China, Venezuela, and United Arab Emirates. “What these countries don’t have are airplanes,” Vincent says, noting an unmet opportunity for business aviation.
Since 2022, very-light to mid-size jet segments showed the most significant increase in pre-owned sale inventories. The JETNET survey also shows that in 2023 the five major airframers were taking more orders than they delivered, which builds a healthy backlog.
New aircraft like the Dassault 10X are expected to drive sales over the next five years.
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Of the 8,600 jets forecasted to be built over the next 10 years, JETNET says light jets (22.6 percent), large ultra long-range jets (22.2 percent), and personal jets (15.4 percent) ranked as the top three segments. Those were followed by super-midsize jets (14 percent), midsize jets (7.3 percent), very light jets (6.1%), large long-range jets (5.1 percent), large jets (5.2 percent), and super-light jets (1.6 percent). Total value will be about $262 billion. JETNET also forecasts the delivery of 4,300 new turboprops through 2033 with a value of $25 billion.
The Honeywell survey noted that the introduction of new aircraft models continues to drive increased demand, a trend that will continue into the early 2030s. The survey said North America will see 66 percent of new jet deliveries over the next five years, which is consistent with historical demand. Europe will have 13 percent of new deliveries during the same time period, and Latin America will account for 10 percent of the deliveries. In the meantime, the Asia Pacific region and Middle East will account for 7 and 3 percent, respectively.
Both surveys reported a cooling for pre-owned aircraft after record-low inventory levels in 2021 and 2022, though Honeywell says aircraft values remain strong compared to the previous decade. “While pre-owned inventory will likely continue to increase slowly, prices should remain stable,” the company said in a statement.
The number of pre-owned jets for sale continues to rise as the market comes back to equilibrium from the pandemic.
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The JETNET study showed that owners who want to sell pre-owned aircraft was much higher than last year, and those who intend to purchase these aircraft, while lower than the number of sellers, has risen this year, perhaps signifying a glimpse of returning stability to the market.
Other macro trends include retooling business aircraft for the next generation of technologies and customer requirements, and a global march to sustainability, which is being led by European countries. “European operators show the most proactive behavior in lowering their carbon footprint, with North American operators lagging slightly behind,” said the Honeywell report. “However, the total number of operators taking proactive steps in North America is still greater than any other region given the much larger volume of business aviation operations in the region.”
The acquisition of new, fuel-efficient aircraft is considered the most effective way to lower business aviation’s environmental impact, according to the Honeywell survey, though only 60 percent of respondents are “proactively” taking steps to reduce their environmental impact. The use of sustainable aviation fuel is also another method for lowering carbon emissions, though 75 percent of operators say its higher cost is an obstacle to implementation.