China Could Have 100,000 Flying Cars and Air Taxis Over Its Cities by 2030

Will China eventually dominate the electric flying car market, much as it has done with electric vehicles? That’s the goal, according to a Chinese trade group that predicts the country will have more than 100,000 autonomous drones, flying cars, and electric air taxis hovering over its cities by 2030. It’s all part of the plan to develop what Chinese government officials call the “low-altitude economy.” Beyond its own borders, China also wants to become the dominant provider of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft in developing countries across Asia and even developed nations like Japan.

The industry has a long path to developing the production facilities and infrastructure needed to hit the 100,000 air vehicle mark, but it’s already making inroads into other Asian countries.

Chinese eVTOL maker AutoFlight last week flew one of its prototypes in Japan for the first time in collaboration with the aerospace nonprofit MASC. The first Japanese test flight of its five-seat Prosperity eVTOL aircraft is part of a longer-term plan to link electric aircraft to outlying coastal areas with aging infrastructure and poor transportation hubs.

The flight, which went off successfully, set the stage for more test flights across different Japanese cities to accelerate adoption of commercial advanced air mobility. Earlier this year, AutoFlight sold a Japanese customer the first Prosperity outside of China, which will be used as a non-piloted demo model in events such as the World Expo in Osaka next year.

Prosperity completed cross-sea flights in China’s Pearl River Delta (Shenzhen to Zhuai) in 2024 and last year snatched the distance record with a 155.5-mile flight (lasting 1 hour, 38 minutes) from U.S. rival Joby. Both Joby and its largest American rival Archer expect to be FAA certified and flying commercially by 2026.

In March, AutoFlight became the second Chinese eVTOL maker to receive its airworthiness certificate from the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) for its CarryAll non-crewed transport eVTOL. It’s the first eVTOL weighing over a ton certified to fly in Chinese airspace. It plans to have the Prosperity certified in the next three to five years, first in China and then by EASA, the European Union’s aviation authority.

EHang is another Chinese manufacturer that has completed a 16-city tour of its electric aircraft in Japan, with others across Southeast Asia and the Middle East. That company has already sold more than 300 two-person, non-crewed EH216-S eVTOLs. The aircraft was type certified in October 2023 by CAAC. In the latest quarter, it shipped 63 units to buyers. The company’s main production facility is in Yunfu, with another planned for Abu Dhabi. All eVTOL makers see the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia as potential early adopter markets.

A third manufacturer, Volant Aerotech, says it has received preorders from within China for more than 700 units. A fourth, Xpeng Aeroht, has started construction of a flying-car manufacturing site, targeting mass production by 2026. In the past year, the country has seen more than 30 eVTOL-related startups.

The fast growth in the sector is part of a government initiative to create new ways to grow the economy. China’s prime minister Li Qiang mentioned the importance of developing the “low-altitude economy” in a state of the union address earlier this year. He identified it as a “strategic emerging industry.”

In a report released last week, the China Low Altitude Economic Alliance said China could have 100,000 long-range drones and eVTOLs in the air, as cargo transport, personal flying cars, or air taxis by 2030. Besides eVTOLS, large, long-range drones, which could carry cargo at altitudes of about 3,000 feet for distances up to 1,000 miles, are being tested. Drones are expected to comprise the bulk of the air traffic.

Beyond private use, China’s eVTOLs will also be used for medical services and other forms of transport. Autoflight’s Prosperity demo flight in Japan last week is part of a plan to connect three islands—Honshu, Shikoku, and Kyushu—in Japan’s inland sea. The region is facing aging infrastructure in coastal areas and limited transport between the islands and mainland. The Japanese initiative is called SCAI28, which aims to address those challenges with air mobility solutions by 2028.

Whether China can meet the aggressive goals of 100,000 flying electric vehicles by 2030 remains to be seen. But it is the first national government to target eVTOLs as a growth industry, which could eventually mean state investments across multiple areas, as well as expedited regulations that would fast-track eVTOL use.

The China Low Altitude Economic Alliance, comprising 100 firms, also admitted that the way forward is less than clear. “There is no mature business model for the low-altitude economy to learn from abroad,” Luo Jun, executive director, said in a statement. “Many companies are both enthusiastic and confused about the low-altitude economy.” Luo said his group will create detailed guidelines for cities to develop commercial strategies for implementation.