Long a Bellwether for trends in the collector-car market, the auctions surrounding Northern California’s annual Monterey Car Week delivered seismic results in August, with a number of big-ticket 1950s- and ’60s-era Ferraris unsold. But in retrospect, many are of the opinion that the tremor wasn’t as significant as it felt at the time, blaming ambitious reserves, a glut of top-tier inventory, and a continued cooling-off from the scorching run stoked by pandemic-era demand. So, while one 250 GT SWB California Spyder fetched more than $17 million—the top lot of the week—another bid to $13.5 million failed to sell, suggesting it was just one among many other superb Prancing Horses for which there were simply not enough buyers.
What’s clear is that, while the market may not be undergoing a complete overhaul, it’s certainly getting a realignment, with the linchpin models of yesteryear showing signs of ceding ground to more recently minted stock. In 2024, Monterey hosted five major auction houses—Bonhams Cars, Broad Arrow Auctions, Gooding & Company, Mecum Auctions, and RM Sotheby’s—which garnered $391.6 million in total sales, with a combined sell-through rate of 72 percent, as compared to 2023’s results of $403.3 million and 69 percent, with both years running roughly the same number of lots over the ramp. On the surface, the difference might suggest nothing more than a rounding error, but such broad-brush statistics don’t tell the full story about who’s buying—and who’s buying what.
“Buyers have retaken control over how prices are dictated,” says Rupert Banner, senior specialist at Gooding & Company. “From time to time the sellers are in control, but that never lasts.” Banner describes the current market as “settling” and says the results from Monterey leave him optimistic. “We’re seeing a lot of new buyers entering the market, which is great news: They’re migrating towards cars that are easiest for them to understand or relate to.” Those vehicles, he says, are the “cars that they aspired to in the last 15 to 20 years as they developed their wealth.”
Among the models Banner cites are those from Porsche—including “reworked” examples from the likes of Singer and Porsche-bodied cars from RUF—as well as the Ferrari F50, which he notes “now has incredible traction in the market, with people appreciating its V-12 and limited production over its V-8 predecessors.”
McKeel Hagerty, CEO and chairman of classic-car insurer Hagerty, parent company of Broad Arrow Auctions, uses a similar term, “rebalancing,” to describe the state of play. “The market is roughly flat to a little bit down,” he clarifies, “not a 22 percent decrease like what we saw from 2022 to 2023, which was definitely a down year off of the pandemic-fueled highs.”
Although younger models are elbowing their way into territory once dominated by prewar favorites such as the Alfa Romeo 8C 2900B, Hagerty insists the shift doesn’t reflect a compromise in quality. “The next generation still looks for rarity, beauty, and provenance; they’re just looking in a different era,” he says, noting that the McLaren F1, Ferrari F50, and Porsche 911 GT1 “have become crown jewels.”
But what about stalwarts like the Mercedes-Benz 300 SL and Ferrari 275 GTB4—are the blue chips inured to such quotidian trends and fluctuations? “Nothing is totally immune, but the best bet has always been to buy what you love,” Hagerty advises. “Driving and enjoying a great car is a great way to hedge an automotive investment.”
Authors
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Robert Ross
